ECMWF 49r1 Upgrade - 12 November 2024

WeatherBELL is pleased to announce upgrades to our ECMWF offerings in accordance with the latest ECMWF model upgrade to Cycle 49r1. This upgrade represents the latest cycle of science upgrades and improvements to the ECMWF’s IFS model as well as a shift in the deterministic model’s relationship to the ensemble suite.

The following changes will take effect beginning with the 06 UTC ECMWF cycles on Tuesday 12 November 2024.

In this cycle, the HRES (deterministic) and ENS Control member will become computationally and scientifically identical. This will result in the following changes for our ECMWF offerings:

• Extension of the HRES and WAVE forecasts to 15 days (00/12 UTC runs) and 6 days (06/18 UTC runs)
• Elimination of EPS Control graphics, as this upgrade will render these redundant
• The ECMWF-Wave model will be produced on the same grid as the atmospheric model, 0.1 x 0.1 degrees.

In a future upgrade cycle, currently expected to be Cycle 50r1, the HRES forecast will be renamed to be the ENS control, but will be produced and disseminated on the current HRES schedule.

This upgrade cycle will also bring continued science additions and improvements, including:

• Land surface model upgrades including urban tiles, improving forecasts in and near urban areas
• Various data assimilation improvements including direct assimilation of 2-meter temperature
• Removal of surface-based CAPE in favor of MUCAPE (CAPE of the most unstable parcel)

Finally, the cycle introduces a few new output parameters. While we have not added any to our portfolio to coincide with the upgrade at this time, we will continue to evaluate the potential for adding them going forward.

Full details regarding what is in the upgrade can be found at Implementation of IFS Cycle 49r1 - Forecast User - ECMWF Confluence Wiki 1

As a reminder, WeatherBELL obtains and offers ECMWF data on pre-scheduled delivery. ECMWF graphics are typically produced on the following schedule given upstream data availability:

Please reach out to us know at support@weatherbell.com if you have any questions as we prepare to implement this exciting upgrade!

The WeatherBELL Analytics Team